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Analysis

What are the effect of Taliban rule on India and the Region?

WebdeskAug 16, 2021, 01:39 PM IST

What are the effect of Taliban rule on India and the Region?

                                                                                                                                                                                   T.S. Chandrashekar

 

Indian companies operating in Afghanistan, their Indian employees in project sites, can be victims. Kidnapping, mass murder, ransoms, threats, forced conversion or public execution can take place.

 

It is now “Taliban Raj” in Afghanistan. If we see who this Taliban are, they are the combination of world dreaded Terrorist organizations like Haqqani Group, Al Qaeda, Al Shabab, Boko Haram, Islamic State or ISIS, Harkat-ul Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Jaish-e- Mohammed (JeM), Harkat-ul Mujahideen, Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen (JUM), Harkat-ul-Jehad-al- Islami (HuJI) to name a few. They all came to fight to establish caliphate and Islamic rule in the world. They were directly supported with men's money arms ammunition from Pakistan Government Secret Agency ISI, Pakistan Army and its Government.

 

Nearly 20000 Pakistan non-state actors and its army designed and fought shoulder to shoulder with the Taliban against Afghan Civilian Government. Pakistan has done Historical Blunder’s in its existence as it played sides to survive itself as a state. At first, it went with Saudi Arabia from 1947 to the 1980s, then with the US against Russia in Afghan by supporting Mujahedeen. Then Pakistan stood with China against the US and supporting the Chinese in Afghan Taliban reconciliation.

 

So Pakistan's indirect invasion of Afghanistan constitutes an armed attack & act of aggression under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. The international community must take action under Articles 41 or 42 to uphold international law & the rules-based international order. Pakistan has to be declared a “Terror State,” or United Nations Security Council delegation should examine the ground reality in Afghanistan and tell the world what happened there? All the members should visit Afghan? Or sanction Pakistan like North Korea and show the world its real face?

 

Worrisome for China:

 

China is completely worried about the rise of the Taliban in Afghan. It has hosted and recognized Taliban leaders and asking mercy and support for its acts in Xinjiang and no anti-China in Afghan Taliban controlled areas. But one thing that China forgets Taliban or its affiliates have regional ambition their entry to Xinjiang can lead them to Beijing as already China has ethnic divide and complexities same did USSR the imminent collapse of China regime or its Empire can happen as Tibet to Xinjiang to Macau to Hong Kong to Inner Mongolia to name few are already fed up with Beijing a small anti-Government Movement from Xinjian can boil over China and see fall of Han Empire. The Success of the Taliban is the end of China….

 

Worrisome for Central Asia:

 

Central Asia, made up of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, is a vast landmass separating the countries of Eastern Europe and the Caucasus from East and South Asia. The Total Area is 4,003,451 km2 (1,545,741 sq mi) with an approximate population of 72,960,000 (2019). It is a region rich in natural resources, including oil and gas. And it is a region long shrouded in mystery, known by most for its role in ancient trans-Asian commerce via the Silk Road.

 

“Central Asia was a former USSR Member Country. All the Central Asia Republics are Islamic Countries with good relations with India. The Worrisome is Central Asia can be very vulnerable and easily fall to the Taliban due to the political systems, poverty, and corruption. For Example, at any given Time Taliban has a given army of 70000 + Pakistan irregular army 20000 and other non-state actors. They can do guerilla warfare and terrorize people. Religion can bring them fast with locals, though they differ in ethnicity. So Central Asian Countries with the population of Uzbekistan - 3.3 Crore, Kazakhstan - 1.8 Crore, Tajikistan - 1 Crore or Less, Kyrgyzstan–Sixty Six Lacks or less (6524195) and Turkmenistan–Sixty Lakhs (6,031,200). If Russia does not stand with them, they can easily fall to Taliban to ISIS to Al Qaeda to Islamic Terror Groups, though the Nations are strong.  ”

 

 

Worrisome for the Region:

 

The instability can take further up to the Caucasus surrounding Azerbaijan, which has a One Crore Population, then towards Iraq to the Middle East. Militant Islamic radicalization is not new in Southeast Asia. The region has some of the world’s oldest and most active militant Islamist organizations dating back to post-colonial insurgencies challenging evolving state structures.

 

Since then, radicalization and terrorism landscapes have evolved dynamically in Southeast Asia as the region constitutes an “enabling environment” in which militant Islamist groups like Jemaah Islamiyyah (JI), Kumpulan Mujaheddin Malaysia (KMM), and Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) flourish. Even so, radicalization in Southeast Asia is often understudied compared to Europe and Middle Eastern countries as a quarter of the world’s Muslim residents; an estimated 240 million stays there.

 

In the Indian Ocean region, the Maldives to Srilanka, the threat is there. In the Maldives, few Soldiers joined Jihadi Moment, and in Lanka, Church Bombings are, e.g. of the threat presence there. Pakistan Taliban is already regrouping and overplaying Pakistan. Soon, it will enter Islamabad and create unrest in the region touching up to Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar. In Africa, Boko Haram, Algeria’s al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, or Somalia’s al Shabab have already been present. Connecting with the Taliban is only a matter of time. Europe and America already have been directly affected with a huge impact on their society France to Netherlands have taken the burnt. Some of their citizens have even fought with Islamic State. Xenophobia already exists from Europe to the US.

 

Effect on India?

 

Firstly from Rawalpindi, Pakistan, the ISI had given Taliban terrorist map to attack Indian Government Help to Civilian Afghan rule. India spent nearly 3 Billion dollars for Afghanistan in the construction of Parliament, Dams, Highway Projects, Hospitals, Education, Training, and more. Pakistan targeted these projects through the non-state Terror actors. India’s benevolence in no part of Afghanistan was “untouched’ by the “400-plus projects that India has undertaken in all 34 provinces with $3 Billion Dollars.

 

Secondly, the Taliban are hostile to Indian interests in Afghanistan. Indian companies operating in Afghanistan, their Indian employees in project sites, can be victims. Kidnapping, mass murder, ransoms, threats, forced conversion or public execution can take place. "The security situation in Afghanistan remains dangerous in several provinces," the advisory issued by the Indian Embassy in Kabul said.

 

Thirdly Taliban can support Terror organizations to work against India from Kashmir to Bangalore and Kolkata to North East, touching Gujarat. The aim and objective of the Taliban is as same as Al Qaeda or Islamic State for the establishment of Caliphate, so they will do anything to achieve it.

 

“Fourthly for India, happenings in the Middle East, one in Iran and the other in South Asia Afghanistan, is seen with caution and geopolitical strategy. For the first time in History, China which was moving towards the East, is turning to South Asia, Middle East, Indian Ocean and trying to play a role from Bilateral to Regional to Global Level. This has its effect on India’s Supply Logistics, Energy and Security. From now on, through Waghan Corridor, China can move to Iran for Oil directly through Afghanistan with the support of Pakistan. This can make it less dependent on the Indian Ocean for Oil Movement. Like the Western World, India wants Freedom of Navigation, Rules-based Order, Democracy, Globalization, and Free Supply Chain movements. If Afghanistan falls to the Taliban and if the Taliban becomes Militarized and in the future, if they go with China and If Iran falls to debt Trap diplomacy of China in the long term, it is not going to be good for the region.”

 

 

Fifthly, many Indians work in the Middle East and send a lot of Remittance and Resources. Taliban can create regional instability by exporting terrorism to the Middle East that can negatively affect India. Continuous regional disturbances and terrorism can harm Middle East Economy and created a repulse in Oil Prices.

 

Sixthly, India’s main goal is to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for anti-India militants. The Indian government did not back U.S. efforts to reach an agreement with the Taliban and disagreed with legitimizing the group as a political actor. Though Taliban spokespersons Suhail Shaheen and Zabihullah Mujahid have appreciated India's help in national projects and said, its embassies and diplomats would not be harmed. The way they cheated America in the peace process, they can do the same for India. We can't trust Terror Groups.

 

Seventhly, America spent $2 Trillion in Afghanistan; Afghan had nearly 4 Lakh soldiers with the best weapons, training and Military covers. But the mystery was they could not take over 70000 Taliban. Though America has the world’s best super air force, it could not oversee the fall of Afghan. On the ground, observations and reliable evidence suggest that the Taliban have an efficient leadership, are learning from their mistakes, and are quick to exploit their adversaries' weaknesses. They are building a parallel administration, have nationwide logistics, and already manage an impressive intelligence network, which is worrisome as they can use this technique on other nations too.

 

Finally, one can say that the world is under attack by Islamic Terrorism through Taliban, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Laskar e Tohiba Boko Haram, Al Shabab, to name a few. They want to take the world to the medieval ages. Taliban in Afghanistan have already imposed Sharia laws, and women, including parliamentarians and ministers, are scared. Journalists to Government-backed supporters are pinpointed and killed brutally. Human Rights has withered. Taliban are becoming a threat to the World very soon. Saudi’s who funded them are lost in this war. The Collapse of few countries will begin now or late, but the threat has started. As the USSR fell fighting Mujahadeen, China can collapse as cards from Xingjiang to Tibet to Inner Mongolia, Hong Kong, and more. For now, coming together like QUAD, a regional group of all like-minded nations, can prevent the attack then personal interest. No country in the world should recognize Taliban rule. This can save the world and democracy. Otherwise, the world will be in chaos. The responsibility lies for like-minded countries like India to save the world from this New Enemy in disguise. So India and the like-minded countries should not recognize Taliban rule and put sanctions on Pakistan for its acts in Afghanistan.

 

The writer is a Political Analyst, Columnist, International Affairs & Korea Expert.

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