Keeping post-poll violence at the backdrop, this is no time for those who live in West Bengal to write an article. Yet, it’s the responsibility of those conscious citizens to engage in an unbiased review of electoral outcome who are aware of the ground realities of West Bengal politics.
To understand the real pulse of post-poll violence, a comprehensive autopsy of poll data would be helpful. However, some extent of data work suggested-- while some people thought the State was going on the poll, some others were ready to strike a war. While votes of a section of the West Bengal populace got divided into 3 segments, votes of another section got consolidated into one. The numerical picture of the 2021 Assembly Election (a war in reality) unveils the ground reality of the State which has the longest open international border.
Data studies are also suggestive of anomalies indicating poll rigging. However, those aspects don’t fall within the ambit of this article.
West Bengal’s polity observed partition-time political dynamics from before the war that ended on May 2. Apart from ruling Trinamool Congress, Congress, LEFTs, the Muslims (in the name of Indian Secular Front) and BJP took part in it. Apart from geographical variance, the difference between 1947’s & present realm remained primarily in the nomenclature of the Islamic Party. In 1906, Islamists of Undivided India coalesced together in the name of the Muslim League & demanded a part of the land exclusively for Muslims which finally materialized in 1947.
Likewise in 2021, Islamists’ votes consolidated with TMC. Questions may strike readers' minds how did Muslim-vote consolidation become apparent while ECI didn’t provide a religious break up of electoral data? While such questions would be duly addressed in this piece, it’s required to refer to pre-poll dynamics of West Bengal polity.
In 2020, Muslim Pirjadas (Clerics) of Furfura Sharif in West Bengal launched their political existence in the name of the Indian Secular Front while Clerics in reality have nothing ‘Secular’ in them. As Congress & Communists stood in support of the Muslim League’s demand of Pakistan in 1947, they stood this time too with Pirjadas.
Congress in 1947 was a single entity while in today’s West Bengal, Congress got divided into two different Political Parties. 1. Trinamool Congress 2. Indian National Congress both of which stood stout beside the present Islamic Lobby of West Bengal. While Communists were vociferous in support of the Muslim League & their demand for Pakistan in 1947, they supported Pirjadas even this year.
Nothing much had changed since crores of Hindu Bengalis lost their lands, properties, lives & dignity of women to Islamists in East Pakistan aka Bangladesh in 1947, 1971 & repeatedly. Trinamool Congress, Indian National Congress & Communists—all stood in solidarity with Muslims of West Bengal. As a result, the State again viewed numerical muscle-flexing of Islamists to dominate electoral arithmetic. Sectional consolidation resulted in an electoral outcome that went against the spirit of democracy. 2021 war has numerically proven Bengal not to remain a democracy any more as a section of her populace consolidated into a fully united army not having any democratic variance in them.
How did Sectional Consolidation become apparent?
Statistical projections were done by the competent authority on two sets of given data.
Given Data 1: Average voter turnout as per ECI was 75%
Given Data 2: Religious demography of West Bengal as extrapolated from 2011 Census data i.e West Bengal has 67% Hindus, 31% Muslims & 2% of people of other faiths.
These two sets of given data were viewed, regressed & analyzed that suggested 91% consolidation of total Muslim votes in favour of TMC outperforming its closest competitor BJP. Huge consolidation of Muslim votes turned the election into a de facto war. Through statistical projections from given data and certain assumptions made regarding factors where exact data were not available, it became apparent that approximately 67.2% of West Bengal Hindus had cast their votes which made 45% of the total number of voters to be those Hindus who cast their votes. (Mathematical clue: 67.2% of 67% = 45%).
On the other hand, approximately 93.5% of Muslim voters of WB cast their votes. So, 93.5% of 31% i.e. 29% of the total number of voters were those Muslims’ who cast their votes. It has been assumed that amongst 2% of a total number of voters of other faiths (absolute number whereof is small enough in comparison to a total number of Hindus & Muslims) of West Bengal, approximately 50% cast their votes which constituted 1% of total voters of other faiths who cast their votes. Thus, the percentage of votes cast were assumed to be distributed as follows.
Total 75% (voter turnout as published by ECI)
Though the religious distribution of total population, hence voters, was 67% Hindus, 31% Muslims & 2% of other faiths as stated earlier (RATIO = 67:31:2), religious distribution of casted votes became 60% Hindus, 38.7% Muslims & 1.3% of other faiths (RATIO = 60:38.7:1.3) reducing comparative weightage of Hindu votes.
(Mathematical Clue: 45% of 75 = 60%, 29% of 31 = 38.7% etc.) In addition to that, unbelievable consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of a single political party converted the election into a war turning post-poll West Bengal into a post-war State where the victorious side is let loose to vandalize the defeated populace of their lives, dignity, properties, belongings & personal liberty. West Bengal has showcased the conversion of the democratic process of election into aggressive warfare using loopholes of parliamentary democracy & the Constitution thereof.
The analysis is performed on the basis of and is subject to the correctness of certain published ECI data along with certain assumptions made regarding factors where exact ECI data were unavailable. In case of any variation in the available data or the assumptions made, the final inference may also vary.
Electoral behaviour of Hindus (excluding those who didn’t turn up to vote)
• Charts given herein would provide glimpses of the electoral distribution of Hindu votes.
• Considering combined electoral behaviour of all Hindu voters of West Bengal, 41.6% voted to BJP, 10.9% to
TMC, 14.6% to LEFTs, Congress, ISF, Independent, NOTA etc. & 32.8% stayed away from voting altogether.
• Out of 100% casted Hindu Votes, 62% went to BJP while only 16.2% in favour of TMC & 21.8% to all others combined including LEFTs, Congress, ISF, Independent, NOTA etc.
• As per ECI data, BJP received 38.1% of total casted votes. Out of this 38.1% vote share of BJP, Hindu votes accounted for (62% of 67.2% of 67% out of total 75%) 37.2%.
• This also means that 97.6% votes cast to BJP, came from Hindus.
Strong anti-incumbency amongst Hindus of Bengal against TMC
Looking at the voting pattern of Hindus, a fairly good consolidation behind BJP was visible while most of the Hindus who cast their votes condemned TMC. 62% of Hindus who’d voted, voted in favour of BJP while only 16.2% voted for TMC. Even the LEFTs, Congress, ISF, Independent, NOTA could garner 21.8% of Hindu votes, which is way more than what TMC could garner.
Such electoral behaviour strongly endorses huge anti-incumbency amongst Hindus of West Bengal against TMC. Amongst Hindus who cast their votes, 83.8% voted against TMC. However, the fair distribution of Hindu votes across different parties is in congruence with the spirit of democracy. Hindus of Bengal exercised their voting rights as per their own choice & opinion—going as per norms of democracy.
• Hindu voters aggrieved of TMC voted unhesitatingly for BJP. In fact, out of all anti-incumbent Hindu votes, 73.99% went to BJP while all the other opposition candidates combined secured only 26.01% of them.
Is this the reason why extreme violence is being unleashed upon BJP supporters, operative workers in various parts of Bengal who are predominantly Hindus? Is post-poll violence resembling post-war vengeance by the feudal lord? Didn’t people of West Bengal have the freedom to vote as per choice? Was it mandatory to vote for TMC?
Electoral behaviour of Muslims (excluding those who didn’t turn up)
• Charts given herein would provide glimpses of the electoral distribution of votes.
• Considering combined electoral behaviour of all Muslim voters of West Bengal, 91% voted to TMC, 1% to BJP, 2% to LEFTs, Congress, ISF, Independent, NOTA etc. & 6% stayed away from voting altogether.
• Out of the 100% of the casted Muslim Votes, 97.1% went in favour of TMC while only 1% in favour of BJP & 1.9% in favour of all others including LEFTs, Congress, ISF, Independent, NOTA etc.
• As per ECI data, TMC received 47.9% of the total casted votes. Out of this 47.9% vote share of TMC, Muslim votes accounted for (97.1% of 93.5% of 31% out of total 75% i.e.) 37.5%.
• This also means that 78.3% of votes cast to TMC, came from Muslims.
Looking at the voting pattern of Muslims, an extreme consolidation behind TMC was visible. 97.1% Muslims who’d voted, voted in favour of TMC while only 1% voted for BJP & 1.9% for others including LEFT, Congress, ISF, Independent, NOTA etc.
• 65.52% of those Muslim voters who were aggrieved of TMC & hence, didn’t vote for TMC (though the number of such voters were comparatively very less in proportion & insignificant in reality) also didn’t vote for BJP but chose instead some other third candidate from amongst Left, Congress, ISF, Independent, NOTA etc. Muslims electoral behaviour clearly suggested complete polarization against BJP & near-completion consolidation for TMC.
Such unusual consolidation is suggestive of instructive voting. Analysis of electoral numeric identified the fact that individual Muslims of West Bengal didn’t behave as live human individuals but robots who lacked variation of choice. Otherwise, such monotonous uniformity of electoral prerogative appears humanly impossible. In West Bengal, the electoral competition was unfair as it was happening between human beings (Hindus) & robots (Muslims) which, in fact, failed the basic norms of democracy.
* Would West Bengal be able to resist the violence?
• Would those who had to flee away from their own home to save life be able to return?
• For TMC men, post-poll violence may be usual incidents, but for those robots who unified into a single entity & voted in consolidation for TMC, is this realization of war booty?
• And last but not least, should robots have voting right in human society?
• If anywhere robots are given voting right, does voting any more remains a viable option to form Government there?
Before concluding this piece, these charts would help readers visualize the distribution of votes across religious communities. 37.2% of BJP’s votes came from Hindus, 0.4% of BJP’s votes came from Muslims & 0.5% of BJP’s votes came from other communities.
Similarly, 37.6% of TMC’s votes came from Muslims, 9.7% of TMC’s votes came from Hindus & 0.7% of TMC’s votes came from other communities.
13.1% of OTHERS’ votes came from Hindus, 0.7% of OTHERS’ votes came from Muslims & 0.1% of OTHERS’ votes came from other communities.
While the blue chunks are TMC votes, the saffron chunks are BJP votes & the yellow chunks are votes obtained by all others.
While the green chunks are votes cast by Muslims, the saffron chunks are votes cast by Hindus & the yellow streaks are votes cast by other communities. Data operations suggest Islamic consolidation behind TMC.