- Akhilesh Mishra
In the context of #COVID2019, PM Modi's next address to the nation on Tuesday, 14th April at 10:00 AM. As we await what next, pertinent to look back at actions till now.
1) When did India first react to the threat? 17th January 2020, ahead of almost every other country.
2) What about issuing travel advisories on travel to China? India issued on 30th Jan - again leading the world reaction. At this stage - India had ZERO cases. This was an important decision point because remember, at this stage WHO and Chinese lobby was arguing against it.
From 17th Jan, when India started screening, to 30th Jan when India issued travel advisory to various actions in Feb and early March, came the time to issue a national lock down. When did India do this? At just 562 cases. Compare that with other countries.
India's timely actions in containing threat of #COVID2019 has had a significant impact. In the graph of rate of growth after 100+ cases,note:
A) Decline in rate after 25th March (lock-down)
B) Spike from 31st March (due to #TabligiJamaat)
C) Decline again from 6th April.
This is growth rate of #COVID2019 cases. Four distinct phases.
A) Growth rate trending up after 15th March
B) Growth rate trending down after 25th March
C) #TablighiJamat setback - growth rate trending up from 31st March
D) Growth rate again trending down from 6th April.
Rate of doubling of #COVID2019 cases in India as compared to some of the other countries.
Graph 01: Exact Doubling till 8,000 cases
Graph 02: Approximate doubling till 9,000 (latest numbers) cases
As can be seen India,despite #TabligiJamaat, is relatively managing better.
Total cases and total deaths per million population due to #COVID2019 (source of data: https://worldometers.info)
World Average: 229
South Korea: 4
This comparison is very revealing.
What about testing?
A) India testing for Stage 2 situation - hence testing is for symptomatic and contact tracing. USA etc testing for community stage.
B) Even then, Indian positive rate is 4.2% per 100 tests. Much lower than other countries which are near 20%.
In summary on #COVID2019:
1) India government has been the most pro-active and ahead of the curve as this stringency index validates
2) Set-backs by obdurate groups like #TabligiJamaat did harm the cause
3) Even then, growth rate of new cases trending down since 6th April
The handling of #COVID2019 has shown PM Modi at his very best. While almost every other country has floundered, or has had to reverse initial policy, India has consistently been on the curve. The strategy has worked so far.
Let us await the next phase. जान भी, जहान भी |
(The article is a compilation of the tweets of the author at @amishra77)