AmericaN troops withdrawal from Syria and its implications to India
President Donald Trump’s quick policies on military withdrawing from Syria and in Afghanistan came as a sudden shock to American Foreign Policy and to its allies. “America First” has taken over consensus and consultation with actors surrounding the region. Unilateral phased or full withdrawal will have a lot of implications to South Asia Security and its allies.
President Barack Obama had sent American troops to Syria in 2015 as part of a coalition against the Islamic State, or ISIS
Despite the fact that world knows that in Afghanistan America spent close to $1 trillion, loss of about 2,500 Americans and thousands of Afghan civilians, victory is nowhere in sight. Rather, a resurgent Taliban now controls 61 per cent of districts with a strength of about 70,000 and an affiliate of ISIS, called Islamic State-Khorasan Province, remains strong.
Many experts drew comparisons to the United States’ lack of interest into Afghanistan after the end of Soviet military occupation in 1989, which led to a government collapse in Kabul, a destructive civil war among ethnic militias and a huge exodus of refugees. “A US military drawdown will strengthen Taliban’s position in the peace negotiations and precipitate political chaos in Kabul,” putting a constitutional transfer of power through elections in doubt, said Haroon Mir, a political analyst in the Afghan capital. Regional powers will again jockey for influence, but none will be able to “fill the political or economic vacuum left after a US exit,” he said. “Ultimately, history will repeat itself.”
Former Director General of Police K Rajendra Kumar cautioned that the US pulling out troops from Afghanistan will have implications in the Kashmir Valley, as terror outfits may feel emboldened. The cultivation and export of narcotics has also been growing in the Region
Pakistan ISI was working hand in gloves with ISI earlier during the Soviet Union in Afghan: later it has become more powerful than State controlling Army, Pakistan Political Establishment. The withdrawal by America will make ISI more active in Afghan to Syria for Islamic State to Al-Qaeda and encourage homegrown terrorists from Kashmir to other parts of India. Pakistan take action against Jamaatud-Dawa and Jaish-e-Mohammad, the groups inimical to Indian interests, knowing their usefulness in the long run?
Former Director General of Police K Rajendra Kumar cautioned that the US pulling out troops from Afghanistan will have Serians implications in the Kashmir Valley, as terror outfits may feel emboldened. The cultivation and export of narcotics has also been growing in the Region. Sirajuddin Haqqani of the Haqqani Network which is close to Pakistan’s ISI is the current deputy head of Taliban. Pakistan feels it is in the driver’s seat in Afghanistan once again, and with China’s help hopes to regain its ‘strategic depth’ in that country.
China and Pakistan have been deepening their economic and political ties with Kabul and is using its influence to try to bring the two uneasy neighbours closer. Meeting in Beijing, the Chinese Government’s top diplomat State Councillor Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi had a “deep discussion about new changes to the situation in Afghanistan and reached a broad consensus”, China’s Foreign Ministry said.
“Both sides believe that military means cannot resolve the Afghanistan issue, and promoting political reconciliation is the only realistic way,” the ministry said in its short statement. “The two sides welcome the various efforts made by all parties and are willing to maintain close communication and strategic coordination.”
Wang visited Kabul earlier this month, where he pledged help to Afghanistan and Pakistan to overcome their longstanding suspicions of each other. Israel is also alarmed by Trump’s abrupt decision to abandon Syria. Michael Oren, a deputy in the prime minister’s office and former Israeli ambassador to the United States, noted that, like Israel’s leadership, “Mattis believed that a strong American presence in the Middle East served as a buffer to Iran and other hostile elements.” “Today as in the past, Israel will have to defend itself with its forces to deal with the great threats in the north,” Oren tweeted.
Amrullah Saleh, a former chief of the Afghan intelligence agency thought Trump’s plan to cut back troops shows that he sees Afghanistan as a “burden, not a strategic and necessary ally.” He said there has been “no progress” in peace talks and “no sign” of Pakistan halting support to the Taliban, and that now the country faces an added threat of diminished US military assistance. “Maybe it will be the end for the US, but a bitter beginning for us,” he said.
In this scenario, the Question for India is, if the Union Government try to update the National Registration of Citizens (NRC), parties are opposing it on narrow political grounds, how would we respond to the posibility of volatile situation on J&K or Assam front. In this regard fake currency notes appearing in India from across the border by neighbouring countries pose a direct challenge to India’s security? What actions do we have to take is to be seen, as Pakistan Army has sent its Foreign Minister to Russia, China and few more countries to analyse US Troops withdrawal? But what is their objective vis-a-vis forces like Taliban that can pose
serious challenge to Democracy, Globalisation, Human Rights, has to be seen? Are anti-democratic forces united? For India as Former PM AB Vajpayee said “You can change our friends but not neighbours” but how to change neighbours has to be seen?
(The writer is Bengaluru based political analysist & columnist)