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The most complex US presidential poll campaign
By default McCain emerging stronger
By O.P. Gupta, IFS (Retd)
It is expected that neither Obama nor Hillary would be able to cross the 2024 bar without support of super delegates. So far about 324 super delegates have not declared their support to either candidate. Democratic primaries in 11 states are yet to be held. Primary in Pennsylvania State is due on April 22 in which Hillary is shown to enjoy as on March 30 a lead of about 14 per cent over Obama. On May 6 primaries are due in North Carolina and Indiana. Howard Dean, Democratic Chairman, has asked all super delegates to make their preferences known by July 1.
The general election for the US President is scheduled to be held in November 2008. At present primaries are being held to nominate the Democratic Party candidate, and, primaries for nominating the Republican Party candidate is over as Republican Senator John Sidney McCain III has already secured support of more than the minimum required number of delegates. Democratic Senators Barack Hussein Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton [wife of former President Bill Clinton (1992-2000)] are locked in a fierce battle to win nomination of the Democratic Party.
Obama is the first ?black? candidate to make such a serious bid for Presidency, and, Hillary is the first woman to do so. If elected, McCain will become the oldest American to occupy the Oval office.
McCain born in August 1936 is the oldest candidate, followed by Hillary born in October 1947 and Obama the youngest one born in August 1961. McCain is an Episcopalian by faith. Hillary is a Methodist Christian. Barack Hussein Obama asserts that he is a practicing Christian attending the Trinity United Church, Chicago, a congregation of black Afro-Americans. Obama's father was an African Muslim from Kenya and his mother was a white American lady who had got converted to Islam. Many US voters still take him to be a Muslim; some even take him a cousin of Osama. Some religious controversy surrounds Obama; some doubt his Christian identity. Questions about his religious identity are avoided in mainstream US media but openly discussed in coffee houses. Obama's pastor Jeremiah Wright is alleged to have uttered: ?White supremacists rule over USA, so, God damn America,? ?crucifixion of Jesus was Italian lynching? etc, and; also, anti- Jewish and anti-Israel slogans which keep boiling on and off in US media. Obama rightly dissociated himself from Jeremiah's such provocative remarks but declined to disown him. Devout Christian and Jewish circles point out that Obama distanced himself from Jeremiah's remarks only under public pressure, and, not suo motu when such remarks were first made.
In US elections it is registered members of a political party who cast their votes to elect the Party candidate who later on is given Party ticket to contest for an elective office. Process of party members casting their votes to elect the Party candidate is called ?primaries?. Primaries are conducted by local authorities. This process is designed to prevent dynastic or family control on any political party. In US elections a candidate is ?thrown up? basically by grass root supporters. In US it is basically grass roots who elect Party candidates. On the contrary, in India grass roots party members have no role in selecting party candidates; it is the central election committees of political parties in India that distribute party tickets based on personal loyalties, groupism, money bags, whims and fancies of party leaders.
Unpledged Republican National Convention [RNC] delegates are Republican Party officials who are guaranteed seats at the national convention where they can support the candidate of their choice. Party machinery asserts itself at national conventions through super delegates or unpledged RNC delegates.
Till April 1, McCain had secured support of 1325 delegates as against 1191 delegates required to win Republic nomination. McCain numbers comprise 1243 pledged delegates won through primaries and 82 unpledged RNC delegates. Total number of delegates at the Republican National Convention will be 2380. Having been assured of Republican nomination, he is now focusing on the general election.
Hard core grass roots Republicans [called Reganites, Regan Republicans] consider McCain not to be so faithful to the core Republican principles [such as, minimal regulatory role of government in economy and in life of citizens, smallest bureaucracy, less taxes, nominating conservative Judges to courts etc]. Obama's nomination for Democratic ticket is expected to help McCain consolidate his grip and support among hardcore republicans who at present are not very comfortable with McCain.
Till April 1 Obama has been leading the race for Democratic nomination with ?pledged? support of 1635 delegates as against 1494 ?won? by Hillary Clinton. Obama numbers comprise 1414 pledged delegates won through primaries and 221 super delegates. Hillary numbers comprise 1243 pledged delegates won though primaries and 251 super delegates. To win the Democratic Party nomination for President one needs support of 2024 delegates at the National Convention scheduled to be held in August 2008 at Denver. Total number of delegates at the National Convention is 4047.
It is expected that neither Obama nor Hillary would be able to cross the 2024 bar without the support of super delegates. So far about 324 super delegates have not declared their support to either candidate. Democratic primaries in 11 states are yet to be held. Primary in Pennsylvania State is due on April 22 in which Hillary is shown to enjoy as on March 30 a lead of about 14 per cent over Obama. On May 6 primaries are due in North Carolina and Indiana. Howard Dean Democratic Chairman has asked all super delegates to make their preferences known by July 1.
Democratic primary in Michigan was held on January 15 and in Florida on January 29. In the Michigan Primary, Hillary Clinton won 55 per cent votes [328,151 votes] but Obama did not participate as it was held prior to the time schedule laid down by the Democratic National Committee [DNC]. About 40 per cent voters in Michigan primary are shown as ?uncommitted? believed to be Obama voters. Florida primary was also held before the DNC time schedule. But Obama participated in Florida primary in which Hillary polled 50 per cent of votes [857,208 votes] and Obama polled 33 per cent votes. The DNC has decided not to recognise the Florida and Michigan primaries for violating its time schedule. So Florida lost 210 delegates and Michigan lost 156 delegates to the National Convention. It has become a bone of contention between Hillary and Obama camps.
Obama camp supports the decision of DNC to deny delegates to Florida and Michigan at the National Convention saying that party rules are rules and must be honoured by all. Hillary camp argues that this amounts to disenfranchising millions of voters for no fault of theirs and insists that all voices must be heard and each vote must be counted. Obama camp has lately moderated its opposition and now says that Florida and Michigan delegates may participate at the National Convention but must not be allowed to overturn the decision based on delegate counts from other states. It is not acceptable to Hillary camp. Chairman DNC is working hard to evolve a formula to have delegates from these two states too at the Convention.
Hillary has been under pressure to quit the contest in favour of Obama as some Democrats think that prolonged fight may help McCain but she has consistently refused declaring her intention to keep fighting till the Democratic National Convention. Hillary's argument is that pledged delegates are not always bound to vote to the candidate at the National Convention whom they were initially assigned at primaries as at the Convention delegates take final decision at national level keeping in view which candidate can win the presidency for the Democratic Party. Hillary's contention has raised another question of principle: should ?pledged? delegates and super delegates vote at the National Convention against the will of voters expressed through ballot boxes at primaries.
Hillary camp has also been hinting that she won primaries in the ?democratic? states, i.e. states which traditionally vote for Democratic candidates in the general elections for President, and, Obama has been winning primaries in ?Republicans? states, i.e. which traditionally vote for Republican candidates so she has real ?winnability? in the general election over Obama. This argument is being used by Hillary camp to win over still uncommitted super delegates.
Surprisingly Obama, an Afro-American, has been leading in collecting funds. Till March 31, 2008 Obama reportedly collected $243 million, Hillary $189 million, and McCain collected only $64.6 million. In the month of March, 2008 Obama collected $40 m and Hilary $20 m. Explanation offered is that Obama has larger number of supporters so with smaller individual contributions, mostly online, he is able to collect more funds whereas other two have smaller number of donors so even with larger contributions they lag behind Obama in fund collection. It is seen as black consolidation behind Obama which is contributing to white polarisation in favour of white candidates, Hillary and McCain.
Prolonged Democratic contest has created divisions which may not heal by November election. And it is confirmed by opinion polls. If Obama wins the nomination, 28 per cent of the Democratic Party voters supporting Hillary are likely to vote McCain in November election, and; if Hillary won the nomination, 19 per cent of Democratic voters supporting Obama are likely to vote for McCain as per Gallup poll of March 7-22, 2008. Either way McCain electorally benefits.
If Hillary is not nominated most Hispanic voters [Spanish-speaking immigrants from Latin American countries] who traditionally vote for Democratic Party are likely either to abstain or to vote for McCain in November as reflecting racial divide they generally do not support Afro-Americans vis-a-vis a ?whites?.
If Obama emerges as the Democratic nominee it is expected that most of the older and middle-aged whites would vote en bloc in favour of McCain on racial lines, and, this racial division along black and white is getting reinforced as backlash to bulk support of blacks to Obama. It is worth noting that Obama has broken through racial divide and enjoys large support especially among white youths. Many ?black? leaders who were earlier Hillary supporters have switched their support to Obama which is seen in certain white circles as added evidence of black polarisation against whites. This, in turn, is reviving polarisation of whites on racial lines. Exit polls of Democratic voters in primaries show that Hillary leads nationally over Obama among whites, and, among women. In the USA one does not openly talk about black & white divide but it is there as real politik.
McCain said he would go after votes of blacks and Hispanics, two traditionally strong Democratic blocs, often ignored by Republicans in the past as well as independents and young voters who have been attracted to the Democratic campaigns this year. On April 4 McCain attended the 40th anniversary of assassination of Martin Luther King to increase his appeal among black voters. McCain equated teachings of M.L. King with gospels of Bible. It is important to note that all presidential candidates have been asserting their religious identities unlike secular Hindu politicians of India.
Till a few months ago many analysts did not rate high chances of a Republican capturing the White House but now it appears that prolonged fight between Obama and Hillary has brightened the chance of McCain. Such are complexities of the 2008 US presidential election.
(The writer retired in the rank of Secretary to the Government of India in the Indian Foreign Service, 1971 batch.)
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