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The cold war for oil
By Daya Krishna
World prices of oil and gas are showing a steeply rising trend. According to Matthew Simmons, a former White House energy adviser, the price of a barrel of petroleum may rise as high as $ 200 to $ 250 in the coming years from the present price of only $ 78. Such an extreme increase in price of oil and gas would unhinge the world economy and spell ruin for large corporations.
In 2005, earth?s population consumed 83 million barrels of oil per day. This number is expected to rise to about 90 million by 2010 and to 115 million by 2030. On the other hand, the historical ?peak? of oil production will be reached in 5-10 years despite improvements in production technology and the expansion of oil shales and sands. The consequent shortfall will be extremely large to be bridged by the renewable energies. In the long run, even if renewable resources are added to energy mix of oil, gas, coal and nuclear energy, they will only be able to cover only 1/4th of the energy needs of industrialised nations. That is the best case scenario!
The very large shortfall in the supply of oil is creating new alliances and the dangers of fresh conflicts. China is moving aggressively to meet its steadily growing appetite for energy and potentially setting up a confrontation with USA for controlling the dwindling resources of the Middle East and Africa.
Basically, the crisis situation in supply of oil and gas is due to the conflicts in Nigeria, Russia, Iraq and Iran.
Nigeria: The bloody fight and turmoil going on in Nigeria, which has very large resources of oil and gas, is the key reason for the steep rise in the world price of oil and gas.
Russia: The destruction of two pipelines of Russia supplying gas to Georgia made the life of its people hellish. Moscow blamed Muslim rebels for the destruction, but Georgian President complained that saboteurs controlled by Kremlin had planted the bombs and accused Russia of stopping supply of gas.
Iraq: It was the aim of USA to finance reconstruction of Iraq from the profits of oil industry. And, the USA has spent millions of dollars to train an ?Oil Production Force?. But, the energy industry of Iraq is just not getting off the ground. And, though its oil reserves are the fourth largest in the world, exports of oil from Iraq barely forms ?th of the pre-war level, another important reason for the steeply rising oil prices.
Iran: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to ?wipe off Israel from the map? and is threatening to curb Iran?s energy exports to US and Europe. If UN Security Council were to impose sanctions on Iran because of the Iran?s efforts to develop a nuclear weapon, Iran might cut off the supply of energy to USA.
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