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April      Last updated: April 29,  5:00 p.m.

M.V. Kamath

The end of the road for Pakistan?

Is it the end of the road for Pakistan? Is the break between Washington and Islamabad complete and irreversible? Many in India may wish to believe so but it would be unwise to fall into that trap. We have to wait and see what Pakistan's next move would be. But consider the following:

* The United States clearly showed its distrust of Pakistan by the manner in which President Clinton flew out of Mumbai to Islamabad not in his regular Air Force one but in a decoy plane to confuse any likely terrorist missiles.

* US photographers were specifically told not to take pictures of Shri Clinton shaking hands with Gen. Musharraf.

* Shri Clinton made it plain that the idea of a referendum in Jammu and Kashmir is now completely out of the question which means that the original UN Security Council resolution of 1948 is now buried five fathoms deep.

* Shri Clinton also made it plain that there can be no military solution to Kashmir and that he disapproved of blood-shedding to change borders.

* The President also advised Gen. Musharraf to learn to respect the Line of Control saying, in effect, that he wished the Line to be treated as an international border.

* The President also drove home the point that the United States did not approve of terrorist attacks against civilians across the Line of Control. This, as all the world knows, has been a regular feature of Pakistani jihadis in the last few years.

* The President further stated in no uncertain terms that Pakistan will lose international sympathy and support if it provoked a bigger, bloodier conflict.

* Furthermore the President told Pakistan in unequivocal terms that should it provoke a war, it cannot expect any help from the United States.

It will be remembered that during the Bangladesh war, the United States deliberately sent the SS Enterprise, into Indian waters to frighten Delhi. Not that it mattered. Pakistan in future won't even get that moral support if it indulges in adventurism.

* Specifically President Clinton said that some elements within the Pakistani Government were responsible for spreading terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. This virtually amounts to telling Pakistan that it is fully responsible for all terrorist acts and cannot dodge the charges on flimsy grounds.

* Even more significant, the United States is now reported to set up an office of the FBI in Delhi to monitor terrorist activity from across the border. Henceforth Pakistan cannot fool all the countries all the time.

It is significant that Shri Clinton addressed the people of Pakistan over the head of General Musharraf. It was as if he was telling the people of Pakistan to keep a watchful eye on their Chief Executive Officer. There was no joint statement at the end of Shri Clinton's talks with Gen. Musharraf, no promise of American investment in Pakistan, no hint that sanctions would be removed. In fact the atmosphere was freezing cold. And if Pakistan entertained any hope that the United States might mediate in its ongoing fight against India, Shri Clintongoing fight against India, Shri Clintohope that the United States might mediate in its ongoing fight against India, Shri Clintnngoing fight against India, Shri Clintohope that the United States might mediate in its ongoing fight against India, Shri Clintongoing fight against India, Shri Clintohope that the United States might mediate in its ongoing fight against India, Shri Clinngngoing fight against India, Shri Clintohope that the United States might mediate in its ongoing fight against India, Shri Clinto manner in which President Clinton conveyed his message to the Pakistani people. As one political commentator in the Karachi-based Dawn noted, the message was put across in friendly terms such as not to rouse anger or bitterness among the listeners. Pakistan, in the circumstances, has not a leg to stand on. In sharp contrast to Shri Clinton's five-hour stay in Islamabad, the President spent five days in India, mixing with people at various levels with his only child Chelsea outdoing her father in general bonhomie. The highlight of the Presidential visit was the Vision Statement which literally binds the United States and India in a happy bond of fellowship that could lead to increased cooperation between the two countries in many fields of activity, not least economic.

Pakistan should have known better than to cross the United States' path. And it has hardly any reason to complain. The United States stood by Pakistan for nearly half a century, through good times and bad. It gave Pakistan literally unstinted support on practically every issue, including Kashmir. There was nothing that Pakistan asked that the United States did not give. The quid pro at all times was full and more than adequate. The United States gave economic aid lavishly, even as, prior to the end of the Cold War and during Pakistan's early years as a state, it gave military aid for the asking and sometimes even unasked. Pakistan can now have hardly any excuse and it certainly cannot charge the United States with betrayal of friendship.

Once the Cold War was over Pakistan should have realised that its days as America's ally were also going to be over. During the Cold War the United States heard what it wanted to hear. To all complaints from India, Washington turned a deaf ear. It looked the other way as China massively helped Pakistan with arms and nuclear know-how, including the loan of missiles. It turned a blind eye as Islamabad openly set up shop to manufacture nuclear weapons. But all that is so much water under the bridge. After fifty years the United States has at last learnt that India is its natural partner in more ways than one. Had Pakistan been a secular state it could still have retained America's friendship, but with Islamabad increasingly turning fundamentalist, the United States has been finding relief in breaking up with its former friend. There are no heart-breaks. When Shri Clinton flew out of Islamabad one could hear his sign of relief from a thousand miles. Writing in Dawn, Tanvir Ahmed Khan, a political commentator put the situation in its correct perspective. Says he: "It is an inescapable reality for Pakistan to accept the new hierarchy of relations that the United States is establishing in South Asia. Nostalgia for a lost golden age, if it ever existed, is as pointless as mindless anger at Washington's sovereign prerogative to pursue its interests in the region. It would be better for Pakistan to accept the new parameters and re-order international relations accordingly. It cannot move into the future while living in the past." For Pakistan it is going to be a painful exercise. Its future lies in coming to terms with India, not in continuing its past confrontationist behaviour which has only resulted in unending bloodshed. If it fails to do so, its break-up as a nation would be predictable. Pakistan is warned.