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April      Last updated: April  15,  5:00 p.m.

M.V. Kamath

A sickness is affecting the nation

So Nitish Kumar has admitted defeat in the Bihar Assembly, has resigned and the discredited Rashtriya Janata Dal is back in power. And how long is that going to last? First, a word about the manner in which Nitish Kumar was invited by the Governor, Shri V.C. Pande, to form a government. This was clearly a matter of numbers. When Laloo Prasad Yadav could boast of 125 MLAs supporting him, the National Democratic Alliance had the support of 152 by accrual of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) (Soren) group and some independents. As Kailash Nath Mishra, the man in charge of BJP affairs in Bihar put it: "All of us (NDA leaders) went to the Governor with Shibu Soren and letters of support from several Independents. There was no list from the Rashtriya Janata Dal...." But why? Evidently Laloo Prasad Yadav was betting on the support of Congress and waiting for c letter from Sonia Gandhi. There was no letter from her. She was away in Orissa to admire the Khajuraho sculptures. Since at that point in time, the NDA had given evidence of support from as many as 152 MLAs—though admittedly falling short of a majority—the Governor had no other alternative but to ask Nitish Kumar to form a government and prove his strength in the Assembly.

There is nothing unconstitutional about that, despite all the noise made by non-NDA parties. Nothing prevented Sonia Gandhi from offering her full suport to Laloo Prasad Yadav, except, perhaps, her conscience. Her procrastination was deliberate. Sonia Gandhi knew that the Bihar unit of the Congress Party was fully against Laloo Prasad and his RJD. Left to itself it would probably have supported the NDA. And that did not suit the Congress President. Her tactic was to wait and see. It was the NDA's hope that the Congress and the CPI would stay neutral in a trial of strength between itself and the RJD. Nitish Kumar was quick to realise that the Congress was playing a dirty game. The eleven Congress MLAs from Jharkhand were in two minds. On the one hand they would have liked to join the NDA which had promised a separate Jharkhand State.

On the other they were scared of quitting the Congress fold. Similarly, four MLAs from Chhotanagpur were determined to oppose Laloo Prasad. But they too could not summon enough courage to face up to Sonia Gandhi. Nitish Kumar, under the circumstances, had no other option but to resign—which he did gracefully. There is nothing to be ashamed of it. It is well to remember that during the elections to the Bihar Assembly, the Congress had some bitter things to say about the RJD and Laloo Prasad. the RJD government under Rabri Devi had been described as jungle raj. And jungle raj it had been. So numerous are the scams against Laloo Prasad—even his residence had been raided by Income Tax officials—that for Sonia Gandhi to support it would still be scandalous. But in India political parties operate on the theory that all is fair in love and war—and in government formation. Much has been made of Laloo Prasad's alleged success in the elections. There is nothing for Laloo Prasad to be happy about. RJD's strength has been drastically reduced. The BJP has actually increased its strength, but unfortunately not by a margin to enable it and its supporters to form a government. This must be attributed to two factors: the caste equation and the tilt of the Muslim vote towards non-NDA parties.

It is not so much the caste vote as much as the Muslim vote that has been responsible for Laloo Prasad Yadav's anaemic success. This is where the BJP is at a disadvantage. The Congress Party faces a severe dilemma. After criticising the RJD in strong terms during the elections, it can hardly afford to support the same party to keep it in power. But its larger aim is to keep the NDA out. One way to put it is that the Congress will have to choose what it considers to be the lesser evil. But Congress supporting an RJD government after having proclaimed loudly to the world eighteen months ago at Pachmarhi that it has set its face against all regional alliances? So the Congress is damned if it supports the RJD and damned if it doesn't. The truth of the matter is that Congress is now marginalised not only at the Centre but in the States as well. It cannot command strength. At best it can lend its little strength to others and play second fiddle to the likes of a Laloo Prasad in Bihar, a Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu and a Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra.

It is a shameful stance and the Congress rank and file know it fully well. Given the circumstances—and even if the Congress gives either its willing or conditional support to the RJD—it is only a matter of time before Bihar will have to go back to the polls. Nitish Kumar is threatening to fight it out. He can take consolation in the fact that when the first BJP coalition under Atal Behari Vajpayee was formed in Delhi it did not last more than 13 days but was returned to power subsequently. The same story can get repeated in Bihar as well. But at what cost? And, in any event, what is the guarantee that the next time around the NDA will emerge victorious? It took an extraordinarily long time for the BJP to make its seat adjustments with its Samata, Janata Dal (United) and Bihar People's Party partners for the recently concluded elections. Can we expect these partners to behave better in any future elections? Is Bihar then, going to have a string of hung Assemblies? At what stage would it become necessary to clamp down President's Rule in Bihar? President's Rule would mean that the Governor could give his consent to the prosecution of Laloo Prasad Yadav which is overdue. That is one thing that Laloo Prasad is scared of and would go to any extent to prevent.

Then there is another point to take note of. Laloo Prasad had once sworn that Jharkhand would be given separate Statehood over his dead body. A desperate Laloo has now reversed himself showing how unprincipled he can be. But should Jharkhand be formed, he would lose about half the Congress support as approximately half the number of Bihar Congressmen are from southern Bihar. Granting Jharkhand separate Statehood would be damaging to Laloo Prasad. He, too, is damned if he supports Jharkhand Statehood and damned if he doesn't. The NDA, in the circumstances, has nothing much to worry about though it is temporarily out of power. It can afford to wait. Time is in its favour—and circumstances as well. But in the end the nation has to ask itself whether the present political system has not spent its usefulness. Would India be better off under a presidential form of Government, both at the Centre and in the States? There is no question that a presidential form of government would bring about stability in the country such as it desperately needs. How long is this nation—and the States—to suffer unstable governments and go repeately to the polls? Shouldn't the Venkatachaliah Committee look into this question with all the seriousness it demands?