Lessons from China

On October 1, 1949, almost two years after India became free and united, China attained the same status. The Chinese leaders called 1949 the Year of Liberation, which it indeed was. For decades it had been ruthlessly exploited by the European powers. A civil war, aided and abetted by the United States had often brought the country to the brink of starvation. The revolution brought about by Mao Tse-tung and his party changed all that. A free China started moving into history in its own way. It was a way shown by Stalin in the Soviet Union where several million kulaks were decimated. In China, according to The Economist, the Communist Party's victims number more than 35 million dead, not to speak of the countless lives ruined. Should it be a matter of concern for us? Or should we be more concerned with China's achievements? The achievements are impressive.

Today China is the world's largest producer of foodgrains, meat, cotton, peanuts and steel, coal, cement, fertilizers and even TV sets. It is claimed that during the last half a century China has doubled the per capita output on grain and tripled the output of cotton. Furthermore, the per capita consumption expenditure has grown from 80 yuan (about Rs 400) in 1950 to 2,873 yuan (about Rs 15,000) a year in 1998 in constant prices. That is truly fantastic. But even more significant and relevant are the social indicators. The death rate has been reduced from 30 to 6.5 per thousand over the same period, infant mortality is down from a hafty 200 to 33.1 while average life expectancy has doubled from 35 to 71 years. If these are not achievements, what else are? Western Power may, like The Economist turn a wry face and say that they have been accompanied by terror and killings of which the world is familiar. China experimented with communism whether of the Stalinist or Maoist brand, failed in some ways but has gained in some others. And India has been watching the experiment from afar. China, like India, is an ancient civilization. Like India, China has known what it is like under an alien oppressor's boot. A proud nation, it has seen its pride trampled upon by western barbarians. On that count, at least, India can sympathise with its distant neighbour. For years Indian leaders, if not Indian people themselves felt close to China because of alleged shared values. Stress was laid on the past when Chinese scholars and travellers like Fa Hien came to India to study Buddhism.

When western powers frowned on China, India recognised the Mao Tse-tung government and was practically the first to do so. India, again, was the loudest to champion Beijing's right to the Permanent Seat in the U.N. Security Council. There was under Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru a period when people in India considered their Chinese brethren as bhai bhai. All that was to turn sour when China invaded India in 1962. Nehru and his adviser V.K. Krishna Menon have been blamed for India's debacle in that short but emotionally devastating war and things have never remained the same again. Indeed, China's covert assistance to Pakistan in the nuclear field have not helped to strengthen Sino-Indian relationships in a meaningful way. And China's angry response to Pokaran II has only worsened the relationships. Re-building the relationships to the level of the 1950s will be a long and difficult task. India has to consider everything in the light of Sino-Pakistan relations and China's hegemonistic ambitions.

There is no doubt that China has made some remarkable strides in technology—especially nuclear and missile technology. Charges have been made that China has stolen the expertise from the United States. That should not concern India. It is arrogance on the part of the United States to believe that no other people have the scientific talent which America has. What should concern is not how China got its technology but what use it has made of it to strengthen its defences and to pose a challenge to its neighbours, including, naturally, India. How many nuclear bombs does she have? And how many missiles? And where are they stationed and at whom directed? And how is China helping Pakistan? Our interests should be centred on these issues. The important thing is to correctly assess not only China's military strengths but its intentions as well. It is not for India to pass judgement on China's economic, political or social theories; it is for India to study them in the light of its security needs. What further progress—and in what fields—will China make in the decades to come? The next few decades will be crucial to China.

According to one Chinese scholar (Hu Angang of Qinghua University) in the next fifty years China will have to face three population peaks. It is expected that more than 100 million Chinese villagers would have moved to the cities in search of work in less than 50 years that could create insurmountable problems for the Chinese government (We might as well note that India also has to face a similar problem). In 20 years time it is expected that China's working population ( aged between 15 and 64) would be around one billion. How will China manage this enormous demand on its economy? Just as importantly, by 2030 China's population is expected to reach 1.6 billion, prompting concern about food supplies. For all its current production, feeding 1.6 billion mouths would not be easy.

India has to watch China carefully and see how Beijing tackles its enormous problems to draw its own lessons. It is a well-known fact that foreign companies have invested upward of 270 billion dollars in China since 1992. India has received nowhere that kind of investment and will have to ask why that is so. In other ways China has to serve as a teacher to India in many ways. How can India match China without sacrificing its own democratic values? How come foreign investors prefer China to India? These are the kind of questions India has to ask itself.